American Idol

I must admit that I am always amazed at how U.S. policymakers and China experts never seem to make ‘connecting the dots’ regarding recent events in the Middle East and that of Mainland China and Taiwanese relations. As Sinologists, it is our job to know all things concerning China but is so focused on this region that we cannot see the implications of U.S. policies of other regions in the world. Since China’s economic reform began in the late 1970s, China’s military policy has undergone at least two distinct stages and may now be posturing on a third: defensive, procurement and aggressive acquisition of strategic territories (ASST).

Prior to the first Gulf War, Mainland China always hinged a possible conflict with the U.S. in defense of Taiwan (or other reasons) as a war of defense and attrition based on the U.S. - Vietnam Conflict. The theory here was simple, the United States and the American people would grow tired of any military conflict that would grind out and cost American lives. The first Gulf War shocked the military leaders by the advanced technology that the United States showcased and how war could be fought effectively in such a sterile and distant manner. Since the first Gulf War, China has continually sought technological hardware in any manner that it can which is the second (procurement) state.

Having abandoned its first stage of military strategy (defensive), and firmly and steadfastly going through its second stage (procure); the third stage may see China attempting to aggressively acquire strategic territories (e.g., Taiwan).
The model for this third stage is not only the first and second Iraqi wars, but also the recent invasion of Georgia by Russia. Here, China has learned first from the United States that the violation of sovereignty will be tolerated, even in violation of international law, if the violator can show that its strategic economic interests (and preferably those of others) are at stake. What Russia shows us in Georgia is that we do not need economic or military interests as a precursor to violate sovereignty, only brute strength.

Sadly the United States and Russia have taught China that might does indeed make right and the international community is completely impotent in acting in the face of such might. Taiwan and others on the Asian continent…beware!